JAKARTA (ISL News) - In response to the volcanic eruptions that have occurred over the past few days, Setijadi, Founder & CEO of Supply Chain Indonesia (SCI), stated the need to anticipate risks to aviation safety and ensure smooth national logistics. The spread of volcanic ash can trigger airspace closures, flight cancellations or diversions, schedule changes, and cargo congestion.
The impact could spread to production and trade activities, especially if it affects networks connected to Soekarno–Hatta Airport as the main gateway for shipping high-value and time-sensitive goods.
In 2025, the value of non-oil and gas exports through Soekarno-Hatta Airport will reach $9.90 billion, and imports will reach $20.77 billion. The indicative value of gross trade flows is $30.67 billion annually, or an average of $84.03 million per day.
Import volume reached 174.9 thousand tons annually, or an average of 479 tons per day. This figure refers to data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and the Ministry of Trade's One Trade Data, with 2025 export data being revised.
Setijadi explained that the eight-hour flight disruption could potentially delay exports and imports by around USD 28 million, consisting of USD 9.04 million in exports and USD 18.97 million in imports, including nearly 160 tons of imported goods.
If the disruption lasts for 48 hours, the indicative value of goods potentially delayed increases to around USD168 million, consisting of USD54.23 million in exports and USD113.83 million in imports, including around 960 tonnes of imported goods.
This calculation only covers international trade through Soekarno–Hatta, excluding domestic shipments, and is not a direct loss estimate. Exports are calculated using FOB values, while imports are calculated using CIF values; actual losses depend on flight cancellations, cargo diversions, commodity characteristics, and operational recovery time.
Recommended Solutions
SCI recommends short-term solutions: airport managers, airlines, freight forwarders, Customs and Excise, quarantine authorities, and goods owners should activate emergency response coordination. Priorities include real-time ash distribution monitoring, flight rescheduling, providing additional capacity, expediting document processing, and diverting cargo through alternative airports.
Perishable goods, pharmaceuticals, critical production components, high-value electronics, and express shipments require priority. Domestic shipments can be diverted to land, rail, sea, or multimodal networks.
In the long term, companies need to develop business continuity plans based on multiple disruption duration scenarios, identify alternative airports and modes of transportation, and establish reserve capacity contracts with logistics providers. Importers need to adjust safety stocks for critical raw materials, while exporters need to prepare alternative warehouses and cold chain facilities.
The government needs to develop a cross-agency disaster logistics protocol to prevent flight disruptions caused by the eruption from developing into broader supply chain and production disruptions.
(ISL News Editorial Team/SCI Public Relations).
